Successful Targeting of Israeli Radar-Carrying Aerostat by Hizballah Highlights Uncertainties in Iran-Israel Conflict Scenarios

On 15 May 2024, Hizballah claimed the launch of two single-use propeller-driven Mirsad strike drones to target an Israeli Sky Dew (stationary) aerostat tethered to the ground at a location around 33 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border. Imagery of the Israeli military facility and reporting from Israeli media align with Hizballah’s claim that the radar-carrying Sky Dew aerostat was damaged although the extent of damage is not public knowledge as of this writing. This attack involving Mirsad single-use propeller-driven strike drones is notable in several respects and highlights major uncertainties in a potential large-scale and protracted Iran-Israel conflict scenario.

A Successful Strike Deep Inside Israeli Airspace

The successful 15 May attack is notable for how it was conducted. Reports from Israeli media suggest that this was the deepest successful attack inside Israeli airspace to be undertaken by Hizballah’s strike drones since the start of the current phase of the Hizballah-Israel conflict in October 2023. Although the Mirsad, which is Hizballah’s designation for the twin-tailed variant of the Iranian Ababil, has been part of Hizballah’s arsenal for over twenty years and has been regularly employed against Israel in recent months, most claimed attacks have been aimed at targets located along the Israel-Lebanon border. Given reports of extensive Israeli jamming and spoofing of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals, Hizballah’s strike drone capabilities are likely to have been degraded. Much of Hizballah’s strike drone arsenal, including most if not all specimens of the Mirsad, is likely composed of lower-end and lower-cost strike drone designs that are heavily reliant on reliable GNSS positioning data to correct for the drift inherent to the lower-end inertial navigation systems used on these designs. While it is possible that prior Hizballah strike drone attacks may have also been aimed at targets deeper inside Israeli airspace y only to be neutralized while in transit, the apparent success of the May 15th attack raises questions about the effectiveness of Israeli electronic warfare and air defences and, no less importantly, the specific guidance and navigation systems integrated onto the two specimens of the Mirsad employed on May 15th.

A High-Value Target

The 15 May 2024 attack is also notable for its choice of target. While Hizballah has previously used strike drones to attack military facilities along the Israel-Lebanon border, none of the reportedly successful attacks managed to neutralize such a high-value target. The Sky Dew is a radar-carrying large tethered aerostat. The specimen targeted on 15 May was deployed near the Golani transportation junction and is reported to have entered service in 2022. Like other countries, Israel faces a major challenge in detecting low-altitude aircraft, particularly slow low-flying aircraft like single-use propeller-driven strike drones, as a result of the line-of-sight nature of radar and the attendant effects of the radar horizon. The detection of low-altitude and slow-flying aircraft is even more challenging in the mountainous terrain found in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. For this reason, airborne search radars are key to effective air defence against low-altitude and slow-flying aircraft including Hizballah's Mirsad strike drones. Although Israel operates a sizable fleet of radar-equipped airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft, a radar-carrying tethered aerostat like the Sky Dewis a more practical and cost-effective platform for persistent aerial surveillance. In the absence, even if temporary, of the Sky Dew radar-carrying tethered aerostat, Israel’s air defences will likely have to rely more heavily on AEW aircraft and ground-based radar and this may contribute to higher penetration rates for Hizballah’s strike drone force going forward.

A Sign of Things To Come?

The 15 May 2024 attack is particularly notable because it targeted a system that may have played a major role in intercepting inbound Iranian single-use propeller-driven strike drones and cruise missiles employed in Iran’s April 2024 Operation True Promise had these not, as per reports, been primarily if not exclusively intercepted by fighter aircraft outside of Israeli airspace. Although Israel’s air and missile defences, bolstered as these were by other countries, appear to have been highly effective in response to Iran’s April 2024 air and missile attack against Israel, Hizballah's ability to neutralize the Sky Dew aerostat highlights the potentially consequential roles that Hizballah and other Iranian non-state allies located closer to Israel can undertake in Iran-Israel conflict scenarios. Over the coming weeks and months, Hizballah may turn to its strike drone arsenal to undertake additional attacks deep inside Israeli territory, and time will tell whether the 15 May 2024 attack on the Sky Dew radar-carrying aerostat was a fluke or a sign of things to come.